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Movies · resolved market

Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeb8e…1dc1backed Yes34c18,553$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,153.121450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes18c17,718$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,527.5811936.1%43 W · 76 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+22.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x110f…8f39backed Yes10c15,656$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,125.524472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x85a3…84b5backed Yes24c5,971$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,557.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+323.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No9c4,053$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.282944.8%13 W · 16 L+8.2wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+145.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x82a0…4a12backed No67c3,826$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.661040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1b…9809backed Yes30c2,624$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+237.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No76c2,496$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.032441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd896…c6bfbacked No66c2,468$1,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.371421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-54.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfa22…27febacked Yes9c2,454$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,234.44944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+154.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes26c2,392$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.413043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe55b…4e68backed Yes44c2,190$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+124.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes30c1,985$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.393225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No66c1,937$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.791838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed No75c1,900$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.112147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No73c1,700$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+57.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No63c1,600$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0044751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No12c1,322$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.96137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No19c1,311$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes28c1,300$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9362737%10 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes77c1,071$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes47c1,000$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ae…f5a6backed No77c989.95$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No16c980$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.745311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c843.28$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.2717010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee2…abe9backed No26c750.2$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes8c709.7$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.1233223.8%79 W · 253 L+11.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes17c697.42$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.625621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked No71c668.87$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.631952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde5e…3a94backed No68c526.64$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.633847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c505.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.321,4158%113 W · 1,302 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes23c500$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3855717.5%10 W · 47 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-61.5%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c439.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.19674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No50c439.13$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.928345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No14c400.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.149745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c384.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.012781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57c0…60c5backed No80c380$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c374.74$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.13934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf1…aecebacked No68c363.97$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes7c359.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.93348.8%3 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa053…e6a6backed Yes6c323.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,104.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c306.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.082042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed No53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.55837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes7c300$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b49…c6debacked No71c266.67$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.345335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c254.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.9248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No70c250$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes35c243.26$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.88933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Yes7c232.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.93per pick7cpaid+1,348.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes41c230$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.781729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6a…449dbacked No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No64c200$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a7…3763backed No16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b54…3fd6backed Yes7c169.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+568.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe746…aae5backed Yes34c155$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb87…4fd6backed Yes26c148.33$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+92.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x040f…fb57backed No70c143.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2da…74e3backed No55c143.03$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes27c130$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5834651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes42c130$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9210649.1%52 W · 54 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed No80c125.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008758.6%51 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9209…dc9bbacked Yes21c120.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+141.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4108…a80dbacked No63c118.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.621637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes35c106$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+22.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes22c104.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+130.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No75c90$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.110438.5%40 W · 64 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No60c85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd483…6365backed No77c70.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No62c62.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.665242.3%22 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5359…6b35backed Yes18c62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+468.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No45c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.034346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc745…b952backed Yes62c48.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.72729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes26c45.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.471216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ed…0820backed Yes30c43.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3819240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c2…de58backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4252…5db1backed No74c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcad9…afe3backed No65c30.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b50…c1d7backed Yes42c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef1…6cadbacked Yes65c20.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.