UFC · resolved market
UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By KO/TKO/DQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77cbd838f53751931e1a34868920a5f0050dbcbca12def5bd91775e603b62522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 9c | 1,411$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.34 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,028$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 11c | 955.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…3313backed Yes | 9c | 540.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 3c | 452.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 450.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 380.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…cf53backed Yes | 13c | 227.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…2206backed Yes | 9c | 124.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 11c | 105.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96d7…7e3ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By KO/TKO/DQ?this page
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Decision?No won
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ?Yes won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Decision?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Submission?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.