TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x975b…2d5fbacked No42c5,953$2,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.3814129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No39c1,908$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.1323537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde70…81fdbacked Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4401040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca0…8cb1backed No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed No42c995$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.81723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No35c955.87$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.5513735.8%49 W · 88 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Yes57c867.8$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.82751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No39c761.39$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.241631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x719b…c995backed Yes60c620.71$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Yes60c587.56$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.5939959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x565a…a8f2backed Yes57c570$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddc…be75backed Yes63c558.44$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0e…811abacked Yes60c551.03$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36f8…4dc3backed Yes57c519.56$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.482334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Yes56c510.87$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22554056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2032545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206829.4%20 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba2b…2d9fbacked Yes64c469.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed No42c460.12$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.481428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes55c430.51$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.738751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d88…8d8ebacked Yes59c430$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…64ddbacked Yes57c430$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Yes56c348$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1212235.2%43 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fb…16d8backed Yes65c323.02$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c51…2b47backed Yes58c283.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.215644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No36c279$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.442646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes58c248.17$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.551250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb65…45cabacked Yes61c245.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes60c232.03$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.8836755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a3…f914backed No45c222.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3312…9299backed Yes60c190.15$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.551145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cec…abb3backed Yes59c186.44$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.443842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9641…ac5abacked Yes63c180.01$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Yes61c170$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.313160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes61c167.2$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d9…407dbacked Yes60c166.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.211861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf31a…a46ebacked Yes61c163.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05bb…7566backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c77…ad93backed Yes59c152.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.982035%7 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1540…c588backed Yes62c138.71$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…1e17backed Yes59c127.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.121050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f78…31a4backed Yes63c126.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f0…9e66backed Yes59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0201…2263backed Yes61c113.52$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+95.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No45c106.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ce…48fbbacked Yes63c105.83$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.16450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No42c104.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked No42c102.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.855736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb408…f21bbacked Yes59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.697651.3%39 W · 37 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdea0…9f7abacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Yes61c99.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1422853.1%121 W · 107 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Yes55c97.39$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8223850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Yes62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.775648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78fa…103abacked Yes62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.771421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-68.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e2b…97b2backed Yes57c95$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.857745.5%35 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7a…87ebbacked Yes65c92.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.31070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ef1…4fa2backed Yes55c91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9839…040ebacked No44c91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.04119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick36cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d0d…04a3backed Yes59c86.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9d9…5f83backed Yes65c85.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed0…92debacked Yes59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7512245.1%55 W · 67 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf9d…c956backed Yes62c83.87$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8722953.3%122 W · 107 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x120e…6850backed Yes55c82$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.91764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0679…bebbbacked Yes62c81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317258.3%42 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4652…f8acbacked Yes62c80.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-46.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No41c80.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a85…a309backed Yes59c68.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.86657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x584e…50ddbacked No45c64.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.860%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes59c60.84$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2519152.9%101 W · 90 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x177e…d798backed Yes56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No36c51.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7119418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes56c51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4856450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab9…c906backed Yes59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.851464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e94…db47backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2011364.6%73 W · 40 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x045c…5861backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…bb8abacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2252252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56456.3%36 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+37.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fa5…9fb2backed No44c48.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8f…3ad8backed Yes63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf543…cedfbacked Yes62c46.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x577e…d0cabacked Yes65c41.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4884…9b0abacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x341d…b204backed Yes59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7f…7bd6backed Yes61c32.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee5…27d8backed Yes61c32.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.742748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31d…a406backed Yes62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.263154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3e6…2436backed Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+111%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7087…1395backed Yes59c27.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee64…8d1abacked Yes61c26.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6f9…2a58backed Yes63c24.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e4f…0652backed Yes62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb5…5cacbacked Yes63c23.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0875…9577backed Yes61c21.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc9…3b7abacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9b…52aebacked Yes63c19.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.