UFC · resolved market
UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34f3c4537e0dbad5b668a3bc54a072513de457a1e2056ac4e48deebc349bb282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb8…2206backed Yes | 18c | 1,410$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…028dbacked Yes | 17c | 757.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…6479backed Yes | 14c | 573.45$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1a…ec34backed Yes | 17c | 407.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Yes | 20c | 406.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…3313backed Yes | 14c | 382.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be4…58d9backed Yes | 18c | 360$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3f…3d8cbacked Yes | 13c | 296.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc039…e2e0backed Yes | 14c | 277.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…ca89backed Yes | 13c | 266.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 11c | 242.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Yes | 10c | 219.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…e6c4backed Yes | 14c | 216.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…7654backed Yes | 17c | 194.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 18c | 191.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab1e…1b05backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec9…260ebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0e…65b9backed Yes | 14c | 166.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…4ac7backed Yes | 13c | 156.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…2e2fbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…6567backed Yes | 13c | 149.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…ef28backed Yes | 13c | 130.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…395fbacked Yes | 14c | 128.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 115.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6379…7b3fbacked Yes | 22c | 114.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…0a28backed Yes | 15c | 91.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…9fb2backed Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…f8acbacked Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…3ad8backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…043abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3c…4020backed Yes | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…f90fbacked Yes | 35c | 45.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission?this page
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Decision?No won
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ?Yes won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Decision?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Submission?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.