UFC · resolved market
UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224fc5f2500f82216d3484e24450cf0f97a431bf51b4b6f5ab79d0e26e5a4f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb7…6479backed Yes | 14c | 743.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed Yes | 14c | 473.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 14c | 425.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb65…45cabacked Yes | 12c | 405.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 350.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 15c | 330.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…03cbbacked Yes | 12c | 302.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 8c | 254$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…3735backed Yes | 13c | 230.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Yes | 12c | 209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 10c | 196.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Yes | 18c | 192.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…7aa8backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 94.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb5…5cacbacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Submission?this page
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Decision?No won
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 317: Will Oliveira Win By Submission?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria To Win By KO/TKO/DQ?Yes won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria Win By Decision?No won
- UFC 317: Will Topuria vs. Oliveira end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.