Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3206dd16ea541384e15bf3e44b1a3260515cdaaefa8f9ddfdf8fd445ab957a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fee…0402backed Yes | 16c | 6,023$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 5,812$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.61 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 10c | 3,753$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.03 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 3,329$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 24c | 2,340$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 17c | 2,044$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.67 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 1,285$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.15 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb605…dff4backed Yes | 10c | 1,046$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 21c | 914.87$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5910…24b1backed Yes | 11c | 871.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 10c | 806.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 700$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 24c | 666.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 15c | 663.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 15c | 636.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 77c | 499.64$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…a783backed Yes | 21c | 475.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…a59dbacked Yes | 22c | 448.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d306backed Yes | 24c | 423.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 368.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 19c | 350.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 322.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 18c | 312.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 12c | 301$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 19c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 13c | 248.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 236.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 18c | 222$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…e502backed Yes | 18c | 215.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…a79cbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Yes | 27c | 187.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed Yes | 12c | 172.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 172.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 165.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 69c | 153.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 20c | 145.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc05…632dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfb…5ae9backed Yes | 23c | 134.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77d…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 126.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 118.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 114.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 74c | 114$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b08…8401backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…af77backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 95.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 26c | 95.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…eb6bbacked Yes | 23c | 85.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ee…cf38backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…c98fbacked Yes | 24c | 62.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…74f4backed No | 80c | 42.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…15bebacked Yes | 25c | 40.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…0e07backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…bed2backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 76c | 29.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988b…159fbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 73c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0780…0022backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.