Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3f5136860b205147f10c343a17e827f4c0a3264d5acca61218c1346dd0cf75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 14c | 1,989$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 11c | 1,182$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 14c | 1,094$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 16c | 936.08$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 713.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 10c | 647.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 10c | 569.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 16c | 568.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 9c | 487$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 7c | 433.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 12c | 364.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…4cdbbacked Yes | 15c | 334.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked No | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 11c | 249$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 17c | 183.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 9c | 177.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 13c | 168.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 17c | 119.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…8901backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…288abacked Yes | 14c | 114.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…24e0backed Yes | 27c | 91.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?this page
- Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?Yes won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in July?No won
- Will the US add more than 200k jobs in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.