NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c7df514950e344799135ea6dcfb2af799976ca8ccdf7d29f2d1a09870c2b75e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Packers, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Cardinals | 48c | 83,298$39,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,314.74 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Packers | 52c | 53,583$27,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,863.16 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Packers | 52c | 26,000$13,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,520 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Packers | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Packers | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Cardinals | 48c | 1,589$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.69 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Cardinals | 47c | 1,502$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.85 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 582.28$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.79 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Packers | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…1c90backed Packers | 53c | 460.5$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Packers | 52c | 374$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Packers | 47c | 310$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cardinals | 53c | 310$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cardinals | 46c | 232$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Packers | 53c | 213$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Packers | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Packers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…fe5abacked Packers | 51c | 177.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Packers | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Packers | 52c | 134.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cardinals | 48c | 124.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Packers | 53c | 118.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cardinals | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Packers | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Packers | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Packers | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Packers | 51c | 41.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Cardinals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Cardinals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Packers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Packers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…3884backed Packers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Cardinals | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cardinals | 48c | 34.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Cardinals | 45c | 28.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Packers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)this page
- Packers vs. CardinalsPackers won
- Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-5.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.