NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c4ec726f7947178b259799d7f55600ae4a79c4f8035bfc44d36b92e026c727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,599.99 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 51c | 17,523$8,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,586.14 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 15,881$8,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,781.89 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 10,032$4,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,980.8 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 7,904$4,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,873.19 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 51c | 2,400$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 50c | 2,386$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.05 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,289$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.61 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 47c | 2,219$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.07 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 3c | 1,719$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,597$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.66 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 47c | 1,239$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.67 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 50c | 979.88$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.41 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d6…5d93backed Over | 50c | 830.93$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 51c | 472.55$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.55 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Under | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 232.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.69 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…d8b3backed Over | 50c | 127.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…4ea5backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…3884backed Over | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 37.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…dafdbacked Over | 52c | 28.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 44.5this page
- Packers vs. CardinalsPackers won
- Packers vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-5.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Cardinals won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.