NFL · resolved market
Spread: Steelers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x875c92acd6bbc22276c214fa16b9181e6a22f1ee93f5eebed39278c27d1bd870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Steelers, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Steelers | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns | 44c | 13,500$5,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,885 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Browns | 44c | 12,894$5,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,685.25 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Steelers | 57c | 7,156$4,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.18 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Steelers | 56c | 5,210$2,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.59 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Browns | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Browns | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Browns | 43c | 1,023$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.71 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers | 57c | 964.91$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.91 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Browns | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Browns | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Steelers | 56c | 424.34$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Steelers | 57c | 320.84$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Browns | 44c | 296.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…5ea3backed Steelers | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Browns | 47c | 213.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Steelers | 56c | 133$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Browns | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Steelers | 57c | 109.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Steelers | 55c | 108.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Steelers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Steelers | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…48e2backed Steelers | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Steelers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Browns | 43c | 65.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Browns | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed Steelers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Browns | 44c | 32.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Browns | 45c | 32.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Browns | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Steelers | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)this page
- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-6.5)Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.