NFL · resolved market
Spread: Steelers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bdb86278d93bce9b9d1d4592e382a9735b53e2a12205a3cc4c76dafdf8fbb05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Steelers, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Steelers | 49c | 22,849$11,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,575.41 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Browns | 50c | 12,117$6,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,058.32 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Browns | 49c | 12,000$5,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,920 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Browns | 50c | 10,204$5,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,104.04 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Browns | 47c | 9,954$4,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,669 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Steelers | 54c | 9,786$5,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,527.44 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Steelers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Steelers | 53c | 3,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.78 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Browns | 51c | 2,197$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.06 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Browns | 53c | 2,132$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Browns | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Steelers | 50c | 1,120$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Browns | 52c | 958.63$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.49 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Browns | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 50c | 498.38$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.19 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Steelers | 53c | 292.4$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…5ea3backed Steelers | 50c | 250.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Steelers | 50c | 250.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.11 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Steelers | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Browns | 43c | 141$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Browns | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Browns | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Steelers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Browns | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…4b8ebacked Browns | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Browns | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Browns | 51c | 41.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Browns | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Steelers | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Steelers | 50c | 23.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…ce1cbacked Steelers | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Steelers | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Steelers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Steelers (-6.5)this page
- Browns vs. SteelersSteelers won
- Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 37.5Under won
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Steelers won
- Spread: Steelers (-5.5)Steelers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.