NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Packers: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca29b32581bbb448f38ae977aa9d681374b87497f7024959b9b9225ef8ae3a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Over | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 11,086$5,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,423.71 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 56c | 7,063$3,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,132.22 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 6,080$2,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,979.2 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 52c | 3,030$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.7 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 48c | 2,950$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.95 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 2,848$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.93 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 51c | 2,211$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.03 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 49c | 1,030$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Over | 52c | 999.99$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 54c | 833.33$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.33 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 49c | 752.94$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.94 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…4fabbacked Over | 57c | 600$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 42c | 505.17$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 46c | 477.54$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 405.72$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 41c | 390$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 53c | 116.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 47c | 116.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Over | 53c | 81.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Under | 47c | 81.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Under | 49c | 40.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b19fbacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Packers: O/U 44.5this page
- Bengals vs. PackersPackers won
- Spread: Packers (-14.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.