NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x795f74844f3edd6c8476600c78d69738bac44b23825b5c200416667da6fd9b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Packers | 56c | 19,300$10,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,584.8 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 44c | 11,609$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,069.64 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Giants | 45c | 9,458$4,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,267.83 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giants | 43c | 5,597$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.24 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca91…978cbacked Packers | 57c | 3,818$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 44c | 1,864$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.21 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Packers | 58c | 1,725$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.9 | 163 | 44.8%73 W · 90 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Giants | 43c | 1,649$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.09 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Packers | 57c | 1,238$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.34 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Packers | 58c | 931.03$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Packers | 57c | 850$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.5 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Packers | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Packers | 48c | 640$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Giants | 43c | 538.25$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.53 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 44c | 519.85$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.73 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Giants | 44c | 469.75$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.69 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Packers | 58c | 465.52$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Packers | 46c | 400.81$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.83 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Packers | 56c | 389.72$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.72 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Packers | 55c | 363$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Packers | 57c | 347.07$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f78…31a4backed Packers | 73c | 330.84$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Packers | 48c | 314.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.01 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Packers | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Giants | 43c | 299.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…fff8backed Packers | 56c | 255.38$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Giants | 45c | 223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Packers | 54c | 182$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…ce10backed Packers | 58c | 173.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Giants | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…3485backed Packers | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Giants | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…a072backed Packers | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fce8backed Packers | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed Packers | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Packers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Packers | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Giants | 43c | 87.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Packers | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…443bbacked Packers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Packers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Packers | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Packers | 42c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…308bbacked Packers | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Packers | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…9774backed Packers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Packers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Packers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Giants won
- Packers vs. GiantsPackers won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 41.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 43.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Giants won
- Spread: Packers (-8.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.