NFL · resolved market
Packers vs. Giants: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f851337b54515cb289920ba50bc86de631db4660eecec4e975dec75a1df3fbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 3,042$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.84 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Over | 48c | 2,648$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.8 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Under | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 48c | 1,400$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 812$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.12 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 216.41$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 172$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 47c | 137$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Under | 50c | 100.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 42c | 84.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Under | 50c | 70.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 56c | 66.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Giants won
- Packers vs. GiantsPackers won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 41.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)Giants won
- Spread: Packers (-8.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.