NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa08e78573d9d1682f2927d4c90aaee50d0684896acbde92ffac99702d7553b49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Giantsof Packers, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Giants | 52c | 42,924$22,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,805.92 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Giants | 51c | 37,817$19,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,627.11 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Packers | 49c | 34,631$16,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,969.24 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Packers | 49c | 24,789$12,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,265.6 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Packers | 48c | 19,758$9,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,483.69 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Packers | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Packers | 48c | 7,965$3,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,823.06 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Giants | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Giants | 50c | 6,655$3,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.5 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Giants | 52c | 5,143$2,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.42 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48be…73a8backed Packers | 49c | 4,694$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Packers | 48c | 3,205$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.46 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Packers | 50c | 3,189$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Giants | 52c | 2,329$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.92 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Giants | 51c | 2,290$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.92 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Giants | 52c | 2,244$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.92 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Giants | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Giants | 53c | 1,438$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.86 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Packers | 50c | 1,406$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Giants | 53c | 1,385$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Packers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Packers | 46c | 999.99$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Giants | 50c | 962.95$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.99 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Giants | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Giants | 51c | 851.09$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.03 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Packers | 50c | 712$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Packers | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Giants | 51c | 626.56$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.36 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Giants | 52c | 578$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Giants | 51c | 514.44$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.99 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Packers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Giants | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3db…0b3cbacked Packers | 49c | 460.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21c…3aedbacked Packers | 48c | 443.97$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants | 51c | 401.16$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Giants | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Giants | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Packers | 48c | 262$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Giants | 50c | 234.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.43 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Packers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…8416backed Packers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Packers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Giants | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Packers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Giants | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Giants | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Giants | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Packers | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Giants | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Packers | 49c | 130.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…53dcbacked Packers | 48c | 129.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Packers | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Giants | 54c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Packers | 49c | 102.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Packers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Packers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Packers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Giants | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Giants | 51c | 96.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Giants | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Packers | 46c | 93.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Giants | 53c | 93.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…3485backed Packers | 48c | 83.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Packers | 45c | 83.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Giants | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Packers | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Giants | 54c | 53.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Packers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…81f9backed Packers | 49c | 49.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Packers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Giants | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…b62ebacked Packers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…966ebacked Packers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Giants | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Giants | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Packers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)Giants won
- Packers vs. GiantsPackers won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: 1H O/U 22.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 41.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 42.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 43.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 44.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 45.5Over won
- Packers vs. Giants: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-8.5)Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.