TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

1H Spread: Packers (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Giantsof Packers, Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8e4c…1d5dbacked Giants48c190$91 inWon+$98.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b06…dedebacked Giants48c188$90 inWon+$97.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+53.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0cb…842fbacked Giants48c186$89 inWon+$96.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7685…9624backed Packers52c181$94 inLost-$94.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3fa…50e8backed Giants48c179$86 inWon+$93.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31c7…4f36backed Giants48c178$85 inWon+$92.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5536…8637backed Giants48c178$85 inWon+$92.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b6e…401cbacked Packers52c175$91 inLost-$9140%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb000…d219backed Packers52c174$90 inLost-$90.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac56…fe60backed Packers52c166$86 inLost-$86.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb332…c5aabacked Packers52c165$86 inLost-$85.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…232fbacked Packers52c164$85 inLost-$85.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcba…4d0bbacked Giants49c97.43$48 inWon+$49.691735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Packers51c97.43$50 inLost-$49.694650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants46c44.67$21 inWon+$24.1241450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Packers52c28$15 inLost-$14.5683447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.