NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Giants: O/U 42.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1c3ab4f93ab8172f6f4530851304a03400cf6f6b41a835431806097902e148

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,483

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,976 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd38b…5029backed Under	52c	30,736$15,977 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,976.6	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	48c	20,864$10,012 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,852.32	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	7,175$3,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,730.41	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Over	53c	5,000$2,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,350	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	47c	5,000$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,350.39	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under	51c	2,816$1,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,436.25	265	47.2%125 W · 140 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Under	54c	2,082$1,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,124.43	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over	46c	1,840$848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$992.53	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	48c	1,354$657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$697.35	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	47c	900$420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	236	47%111 W · 125 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over	49c	823$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.11	163	46%75 W · 88 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Over	51c	607.84$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.84	136	41.2%56 W · 80 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa297…2fbcbacked Over	49c	532.18$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.41	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.32per pick	51cpaid	+61%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under	48c	525.23$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.11	150	44.7%67 W · 83 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	91	35.2%32 W · 59 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	49c	338.99$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.61	414	50.5%209 W · 205 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f8…dc70backed Over	47c	304.35$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.35	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.55per pick	45cpaid	+122.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Under	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	224	46.4%104 W · 120 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Over	50c	248.77$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.77	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Over	52c	208.33$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	194	59.3%115 W · 79 L	+15.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	49c	204.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.55	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Under	49c	149.98$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.49	80	47.5%38 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	92.73$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.44	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Under	52c	76.84$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	47c	64$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.92	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	297	51.5%153 W · 144 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db3…09a3backed Over	48c	42.1$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.89	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	198	44.9%89 W · 109 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…5b88backed Under	51c	35.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	85	57.6%49 W · 36 L	+9.7wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x480a…429fbacked Over	49c	25.51$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.01	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f7…80d2backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd4a4…3c66backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	98	56.1%55 W · 43 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Packers vs. Giants: O/U 42.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event