Spread: Oregon (-25.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd892924e03ddbfabd71ed2c7508ff0f192c960152484874de955732f3a525f87

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Oregonof Oregon, Minnesota
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,697 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Minnesota	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,000	272	46%125 W · 147 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Oregon	50c	15,302$7,671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,631.11	659	45.2%298 W · 361 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Minnesota	49c	10,685$5,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,235.78	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Oregon	51c	10,150$5,177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,973.65	166	35.5%59 W · 107 L	-10.7wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Minnesota	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,900	95	40%38 W · 57 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Oregon	51c	9,612$4,902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,709.88	818	47.9%392 W · 426 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oregon	50c	9,282$4,621 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,661.06	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Minnesota	47c	6,702$3,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,160.72	935	48.4%453 W · 482 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Oregon	53c	6,000$3,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,820	12	83.3%10 W · 2 L	+4.2wins	+0.35per pick	48cpaid	+79.4%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Minnesota	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	381	42.5%162 W · 219 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Minnesota	51c	2,351$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.01	261	47.9%125 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Oregon	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Oregon	50c	1,500$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	127	46.5%59 W · 68 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oregon	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	588	50.2%295 W · 293 L	+23.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Minnesota	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Minnesota	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	120	42.5%51 W · 69 L	-11.0wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Minnesota	49c	714.75$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.62	1,090	41.7%455 W · 635 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Oregon	51c	490.2$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.2	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Minnesota	50c	410$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon	48c	299.98$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.99	422	44.5%188 W · 234 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28a8…57d5backed Oregon	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Minnesota	48c	155.52$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Minnesota	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	134	53%71 W · 63 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Minnesota	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	302	53%160 W · 142 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Oregon	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	183	38.8%71 W · 112 L	-12.3wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Oregon	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	113	54.9%62 W · 51 L	+7.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Oregon	50c	78.98$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.49	542	43.2%234 W · 308 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Oregon	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Oregon	49c	50.8$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	160	50%80 W · 80 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6f…e887backed Oregon	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Minnesota	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	66.7%46 W · 23 L	+11.4wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+39.6%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc96f…d46bbacked Minnesota	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Minnesota	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	-5.3wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Minnesota	47c	35.17$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	213	48.8%104 W · 109 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Minnesota	50c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e4…92bbbacked Minnesota	52c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21e2…bd6dbacked Oregon	52c	24.9$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.95	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Oregon (-25.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event