Minnesota vs. Oregon

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62727e21199372f6f812a414aabdf705013fec1b74749f84e6dd64755941937c

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Oregonof Minnesota, Oregon
Resolved: Nov 15, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $323,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $320,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,441 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x00d6…aa44backed Minnesota	3c	89,318$3,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,079.55	127	18.9%24 W · 103 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Minnesota	5c	75,000$3,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,750	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Minnesota	5c	14,145$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697.15	684	40.8%279 W · 405 L	-10.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Minnesota	5c	13,836$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.79	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Minnesota	6c	12,550$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.5	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Minnesota	4c	11,818$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.7	78	46.2%36 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Minnesota	1c	10,092$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Minnesota	5c	9,914$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495.72	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…0af2backed Minnesota	1c	4,761$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Minnesota	5c	4,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022b…b28cbacked Minnesota	5c	4,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Minnesota	4c	3,206$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.09	1,090	41.7%455 W · 635 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11e7…aec1backed Minnesota	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Minnesota	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	35.3%24 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23e5…d41fbacked Minnesota	6c	2,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Minnesota	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	107	42.1%45 W · 62 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…a807backed Minnesota	1c	1,900$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Minnesota	7c	1,800$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.52	345	29.9%103 W · 242 L	-21.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Minnesota	5c	1,581$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.05	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Minnesota	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3859…d4ecbacked Minnesota	2c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked Minnesota	6c	1,200$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	471	31.4%148 W · 323 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x691d…599fbacked Minnesota	5c	1,185$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Minnesota	1c	1,150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	134	32.8%44 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc71f…bd62backed Minnesota	6c	1,043$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.05	216	29.2%63 W · 153 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Minnesota	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	134	17.2%23 W · 111 L	-8.3wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf922…e9c7backed Minnesota	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Minnesota	5c	726.46$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.32	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5b…8882backed Minnesota	5c	620$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Minnesota	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa805…83dcbacked Minnesota	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	102	20.6%21 W · 81 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf4…00fbbacked Minnesota	7c	430$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.96	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+42%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dad…805abacked Minnesota	5c	414.82$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.74	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8147…ab6cbacked Minnesota	5c	408.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	37cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Minnesota	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Minnesota	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	160	44.4%71 W · 89 L	-15.7wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Minnesota	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	244	36.9%90 W · 154 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eb1…b027backed Minnesota	5c	348.12$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ef…1be5backed Minnesota	6c	320$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Minnesota	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	473	31.5%149 W · 324 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5e…ef8dbacked Minnesota	6c	234.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Minnesota	6c	215.04$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	184	16.8%31 W · 153 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e27…0ee1backed Minnesota	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+5.8wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x548f…ba74backed Minnesota	8c	134.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Minnesota vs. Oregon

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event