College Football · resolved market
Minnesota vs. Oregon: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a8edeb492fb8c08f5f6c8de1569179780a63ba794146069d2198c012c02634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $303,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3151…0977backed Under | 53c | 164,468$87,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,700.43 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Over | 46c | 139,104$63,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,116.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Under | 52c | 80,200$41,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,704 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 48c | 80,000$38,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,600 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 48c | 10,300$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,356 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 48c | 10,278$4,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,350.1 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 8,385$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,441.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 7,500$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,050 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Under | 54c | 5,777$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +58%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed Over | 48c | 3,688$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 3,438$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.82 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 2,823$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.51 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 53c | 1,800$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Under | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 42c | 1,700$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Under | 53c | 555$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.15 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2052backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…bb9bbacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Under | 55c | 273.07$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 181.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 174$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 48c | 144.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec8…eaefbacked Under | 53c | 96.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…c944backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Over | 48c | 40.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…dcf4backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…9328backed Under | 56c | 21.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota vs. Oregon: O/U 46.5this page
- Minnesota vs. OregonOregon won
- Minnesota vs. Oregon: O/U 44.5Over won
- O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Oregon (-22.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-23.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-24.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-25.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-26.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.