College Football · resolved market
Minnesota vs. Oregon: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4423295130e6511fbd96fcf2e9dc59efe30bc513f18d470c4ec930927203eeee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 21,794$11,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,235.96 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 54c | 9,948$5,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,578.15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 9,435$4,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.49 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 9,163$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.89 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 3,368$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.45 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 50c | 3,253$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.08 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 34c | 1,097$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 54c | 1,032$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.51 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 884$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.16 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 45c | 850$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 45c | 628.37$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.77 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 614$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Over | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Under | 48c | 555$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Over | 51c | 409.84$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Under | 46c | 400.37$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.17 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 49c | 95.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Over | 55c | 33.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…173bbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota vs. Oregon: O/U 44.5this page
- Minnesota vs. OregonOregon won
- Minnesota vs. Oregon: O/U 46.5Over won
- O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Oregon (-22.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-23.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-24.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-25.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-26.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.