TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$274,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$263,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,158 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef1b…8697backed New York Mets28c43,444$12,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,337.2514042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Washington Nationals47c39,695$18,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,038.357755.8%43 W · 34 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals72c36,347$26,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,095.0310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked New York Mets53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,90077053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked New York Mets24c19,311$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,722.524847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals75c12,510$9,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,129.8411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce8…31f1backed New York Mets27c10,016$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.211723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked New York Mets27c9,951$2,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.081,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed New York Mets55c9,816$5,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,358.081,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets9c7,142$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.248,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Washington Nationals47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.987243.1%31 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed New York Mets53c6,006$3,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,182.9823948.5%116 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Mets0c5,610$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.268762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Washington Nationals48c3,886$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.728441.7%35 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf11…c679backed Washington Nationals46c3,880$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.7428944.3%128 W · 161 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Washington Nationals47c3,853$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.0189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed New York Mets25c3,740$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.947934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked New York Mets3c3,063$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.76296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets24c3,032$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.328,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed New York Mets17c2,881$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.2760043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked New York Mets21c2,384$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012227.9%34 W · 88 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed New York Mets0c2,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Washington Nationals46c2,046$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.7338148.6%185 W · 196 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals71c2,015$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.5412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked New York Mets54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.8967250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Washington Nationals73c1,964$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.0369453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets53c1,804$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.235,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets37c1,658$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.174,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets53c1,600$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.992,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed New York Mets25c1,500$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.3724639%96 W · 150 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets7c1,456$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.461,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b73…8688backed Washington Nationals76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.794161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Washington Nationals74c1,233$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.31,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets53c1,137$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.061,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed New York Mets2c1,110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.943929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4a2…6fc8backed Washington Nationals45c1,100$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6052740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed New York Mets6c1,065$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0585235.8%305 W · 547 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals73c1,042$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.729,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Washington Nationals46c1,036$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.6973748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked New York Mets53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5305257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8d…a92abacked New York Mets54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54023754%128 W · 109 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Washington Nationals45c989.57$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.821,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed New York Mets8c934.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.981,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Washington Nationals74c883.31$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.932,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Washington Nationals77c782.06$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.311,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked New York Mets4c770$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.814142.6%60 W · 81 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals74c766.86$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.938,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed New York Mets32c683.23$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21837941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Washington Nationals79c646.33$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1714152.5%74 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe22a…cb75backed Washington Nationals47c639.99$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.1926948.7%131 W · 138 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed New York Mets24c616.66$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.788643%37 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals73c611.7$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.24,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked New York Mets53c600$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.985952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New York Mets9c547.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.111,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Mets8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8794034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Washington Nationals76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12017768.9%122 W · 55 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked New York Mets35c486.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0760941.4%252 W · 357 L-22.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb197…4e02backed Washington Nationals47c436$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.088445.2%38 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals69c433$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.052,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Washington Nationals47c430$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.911948.7%58 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Washington Nationals47c416.67$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8438444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee3…cab9backed New York Mets39c402.58$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5216232.1%52 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked New York Mets53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21239850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked New York Mets55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22011550.4%58 W · 57 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…faeabacked Washington Nationals46c388.53$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5340449.3%199 W · 205 L-13.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Mets14c382.81$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.454,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed New York Mets26c379$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0150337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd25…7d10backed New York Mets54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73ff…0facbacked Washington Nationals77c363.64$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6412575.2%94 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Washington Nationals46c356.15$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.1550647%238 W · 268 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6676…22f3backed Washington Nationals46c323.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3152947.4%251 W · 278 L-24.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.151,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked Washington Nationals47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1543247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed New York Mets26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7865651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Washington Nationals47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1593,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dab…e5c0backed New York Mets9c292.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0511228.6%32 W · 80 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6170…03bdbacked Washington Nationals48c287.06$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.063748.6%18 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Mets39c261.38$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.7899624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f9b…a181backed Washington Nationals46c258.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0920543.9%90 W · 115 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked New York Mets54c249.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9851449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets53c243.83$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.232,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6e…7c46backed Washington Nationals46c226.32$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3267449.4%333 W · 341 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Washington Nationals75c226.06$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.231,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a0a…75acbacked Washington Nationals46c219.74$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.7946546%214 W · 251 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals56c215.68$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.696,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Washington Nationals47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7721248.1%102 W · 110 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d94…01fabacked Washington Nationals47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.34per pick55cpaid+68%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Washington Nationals47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7720552.7%108 W · 97 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Washington Nationals46c210$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe530…a2cabacked Washington Nationals47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.341549.2%204 W · 211 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Washington Nationals75c207.51$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.881,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Washington Nationals78c206.06$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7487352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7366…f0e6backed New York Mets28c203.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Washington Nationals47c200.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4384140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Washington Nationals47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10612549.6%62 W · 63 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed New York Mets52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1047833.3%26 W · 52 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe290…7fb0backed Washington Nationals69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Mets20c198$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.053,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked New York Mets27c186.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9133934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed New York Mets54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10038353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.