MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2660f16dd86fe377a8651da414e273595480b34537af8c4d4ae7783848758353
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 42c | 30,130$12,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,654.48 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 21,199$12,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,904.68 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 4,571$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.64 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 3,204$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.22 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 6c | 2,400$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Under | 6c | 2,243$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 1,970$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.4 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 6c | 1,515$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…37acbacked Under | 7c | 1,400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Under | 8c | 1,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 6c | 1,215$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 4c | 1,044$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 6c | 727.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 696.11$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.37 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 58c | 651$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.42 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 571.05$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.84 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 462$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 41c | 404.97$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.97 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 59c | 314$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 9c | 252$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Under | 42c | 235.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 34c | 142$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 68c | 134.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 17c | 116.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 16c | 101.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 32c | 87.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 36c | 76.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 62c | 55.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 39c | 37.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Under | 34c | 34.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 31c | 32.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 35c | 30.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 62c | 30.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Under | 35c | 28.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 58c | 27.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 59c | 18.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.