MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a7346ebd4532a7cb6b673fe798e345f471edc8ed52a04d366b2bc599c8c2cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Mets | 35c | 4,698$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.14 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 3,899$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 3,790$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 48c | 2,036$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.98 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed New York Mets | 67c | 1,073$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets | 68c | 1,003$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.24 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 25c | 672.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 621.47$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 307$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 205.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked New York Mets | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed New York Mets | 67c | 96.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 69c | 87.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Mets | 68c | 79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Washington Nationals | 60c | 64.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 59.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 41c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 38.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 36.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…e307backed Washington Nationals | 32c | 34.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 32.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 31.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 68c | 14.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed New York Mets | 70c | 14.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.