NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93143228e9d4ca37e1dee5d6f709f2f596eb57ff629498f5eb439e69e556546f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 55c | 48,824$26,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,098.68 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 59c | 28,645$16,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,695.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.3wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 46c | 25,750$11,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,844.92 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 42c | 10,775$4,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,478.83 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 41c | 10,454$4,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,331.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 45c | 9,869$4,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,441.11 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 9,616$3,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,820.64 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 43c | 7,664$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.42 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…f985backed Under | 55c | 6,700$3,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,016 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…6e64backed Over | 45c | 6,600$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,970 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…c0eebacked Over | 46c | 6,500$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…eb90backed Under | 54c | 6,400$3,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 4,660$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.61 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 58c | 4,421$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.97 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Over | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 2,850$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.26 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 1,950$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.5 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Over | 41c | 1,946$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.89 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 44c | 887$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.28 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 775$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Over | 46c | 723.91$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 615.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.16 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Over | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Over | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 58c | 431$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 44c | 393$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 79c | 380$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…3e6cbacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 156$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 58c | 143$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 57c | 141$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 122$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 23c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Over | 46c | 58.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Under | 54c | 48.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f9…0732backed Over | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5this page
- Raiders vs. EaglesEagles won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 37.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-11.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-12.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-13.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.