NFL · resolved market

Spread: Eagles (-12.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6959dba356e0485ef8c0b503aa0cf81675943f995f6d1d25bf2712551b997d

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Eaglesof Eagles, Raiders
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $59,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Raiders	49c	37,000$18,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,130	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Eagles	51c	30,000$15,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,700	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Eagles	52c	8,000$4,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,840	513	52.2%268 W · 245 L	+16.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Eagles	51c	6,457$3,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,163.93	191	52.9%101 W · 90 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Raiders	50c	5,061$2,511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,511.24	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raiders	48c	4,384$2,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,106.22	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raiders	49c	3,990$1,955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,955.08	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Eagles	51c	2,353$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,152.94	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Eagles	51c	2,100$1,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,029	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Eagles	51c	1,314$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.86	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…5019backed Eagles	52c	999.99$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Raiders	50c	990$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336a…1915backed Raiders	48c	833.33$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Raiders	48c	829.25$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.04	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Eagles	52c	800$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Eagles	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Eagles	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Raiders	48c	489.58$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Eagles	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Raiders	48c	225.41$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.2	204	43.6%89 W · 115 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Raiders	50c	200$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Eagles	50c	190$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95	284	47.5%135 W · 149 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Eagles	51c	156$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.44	205	55.6%114 W · 91 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Raiders	48c	150$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	159	52.2%83 W · 76 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Eagles	51c	137$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.13	169	57.4%97 W · 72 L	+15.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Eagles	51c	105$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.45	176	56.3%99 W · 77 L	+16.3wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Eagles	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Eagles	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	96	54.2%52 W · 44 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Eagles	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f79…c16cbacked Eagles	51c	80$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Raiders	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Raiders	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Eagles	51c	78$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.22	112	53.6%60 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Eagles	51c	58$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.42	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x042e…f947backed Raiders	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Raiders	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	320	50.9%163 W · 157 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Raiders	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	54.5%60 W · 50 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles	53c	42.55$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…433fbacked Raiders	52c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	62	58.1%36 W · 26 L	+6.7wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Eagles	51c	39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.11	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Eagles	51c	39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.11	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3415…034cbacked Eagles	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Raiders	51c	27.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	54cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raiders	49c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Eagles	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	304	42.4%129 W · 175 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Raiders	52c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Raiders	72c	20.01$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	112	60.7%68 W · 44 L	+10.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x255f…dad2backed Raiders	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b5…8541backed Raiders	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Eagles (-12.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event