NFL · resolved market
Spread: Eagles (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x900ed6a0bd24fbfb8c339589c5b71ca8766ba07d9969a7ffd9463533cfe367f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eaglesof Eagles, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Eagles | 47c | 5,320$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.44 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Raiders | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Eagles | 48c | 2,475$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raiders | 52c | 2,475$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Raiders | 52c | 1,521$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.92 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raiders | 43c | 975.21$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.87 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Eagles | 46c | 902.09$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.54 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Eagles | 47c | 829$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.46 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Eagles | 47c | 738.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.65 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Raiders | 54c | 616.67$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Raiders | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Eagles | 57c | 452.21$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.21 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Eagles | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Eagles | 47c | 388.1$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.69 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Raiders | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Raiders | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Raiders | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Eagles | 41c | 143.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Raiders | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Eagles | 58c | 123$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Raiders | 52c | 101.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Eagles | 47c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Raiders | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Raiders | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Raiders | 53c | 63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Eagles | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Eagles | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Raiders | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Eagles | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Eagles | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Raiders | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Eagles | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Eagles | 46c | 33.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Raiders | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Eagles | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eagles (-13.5)this page
- Raiders vs. EaglesEagles won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 37.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 39.5Under won
- Raiders vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-11.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-12.5)Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.