College Football · resolved market
Spread: Florida International (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3b5e8d9dc95354166cf217bff9d3e42e233672537e37eeca96f01b9126866c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Internationalof Florida International, Sam Houston Bearkats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 31,556$15,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,462.42 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Florida International | 51c | 22,410$11,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,980.77 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Florida International | 50c | 18,288$9,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,144.62 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Florida International | 51c | 15,383$7,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,579.05 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…1e9cbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 11,537$5,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,768.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…c0bebacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 7,451$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 6,645$3,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,256.09 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 5,500$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…96d9backed Florida International | 53c | 3,800$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Florida International | 51c | 2,750$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.5 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Florida International | 53c | 2,122$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.17 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Florida International | 50c | 1,875$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.5 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 1,405$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.65 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 937.48$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.62 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Florida International | 51c | 926.54$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Florida International | 51c | 863$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.57 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 470$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Florida International | 52c | 399.96$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 239$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Florida International | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Florida International | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Florida International | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Florida International | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 44.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 36.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Florida International | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Sam Houston Bearkats | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Florida International | 53c | 27.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats | 47c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…03afbacked Florida International | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Florida International (-10.5)this page
- Florida International vs. Sam Houston BearkatsFlorida International won
- Florida International vs. Sam Houston Bearkats: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Florida International (-11.5)Florida International won
- Spread: Florida International (-9.5)Florida International won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.