College Football · resolved market
Spread: Washington State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e70554b068a33e520abc182df0478910b2d5107c8062edc784fac361e7c20a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Stateof Washington State, Oregon State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Oregon State | 47c | 61,545$28,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,926.11 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Washington State | 53c | 40,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,800 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Washington State | 53c | 22,188$11,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,450.51 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon State | 47c | 15,608$7,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,337.95 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Washington State | 53c | 9,113$4,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,283.11 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Oregon State | 48c | 5,066$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.81 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Washington State | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Washington State | 53c | 2,763$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.71 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Washington State | 52c | 2,450$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.07 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed Washington State | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Washington State | 53c | 1,882$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.53 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon State | 48c | 1,306$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.2 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Washington State | 51c | 809$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.41 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Washington State | 52c | 555$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Oregon State | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Washington State | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Oregon State | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon State | 47c | 369.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.13 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Washington State | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oregon State | 47c | 256.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.65 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Washington State | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Oregon State | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Oregon State | 48c | 227.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2f38backed Washington State | 53c | 218.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Washington State | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Washington State | 52c | 164.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Oregon State | 48c | 121$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon State | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Oregon State | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Oregon State | 48c | 51.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Oregon State | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Oregon State | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Oregon State | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington State (-13.5)this page
- Oregon State vs. Washington StateWashington State won
- Spread: Washington State (-14.5)Washington State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.