NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc53fe4dcb2d241b176f0ea6b65a424cdc9dc1a293382bf3e71c875358eef1153
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…1795backed 49ers | 51c | 50,000$25,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Titans | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,700 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Titans | 48c | 20,101$9,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,703.85 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Titans | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked 49ers | 52c | 17,096$8,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,206.08 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Titans | 49c | 10,386$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,089.14 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed 49ers | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Titans | 48c | 9,966$4,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,783.59 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed 49ers | 50c | 9,367$4,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,683.56 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Titans | 49c | 4,998$2,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.02 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Titans | 50c | 4,637$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked 49ers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed 49ers | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.15 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed 49ers | 51c | 2,500$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked 49ers | 53c | 1,151$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed 49ers | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 50c | 817.59$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.8 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed 49ers | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Titans | 48c | 654.36$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.1 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Titans | 51c | 578.9$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.24 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Titans | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…e115backed 49ers | 51c | 451.98$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Titans | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Titans | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Titans | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked 49ers | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed 49ers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Titans | 48c | 376.7$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.82 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked 49ers | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed 49ers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed 49ers | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Titans | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Titans | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked 49ers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed 49ers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Titans | 43c | 175.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…9707backed 49ers | 49c | 134$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed 49ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed 49ers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked 49ers | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Titans | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Titans | 49c | 81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +16.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed 49ers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Titans | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked 49ers | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed 49ers | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Titans | 50c | 54.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…643ebacked 49ers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed 49ers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Titans | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Titans | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | +11.8wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked 49ers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed 49ers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Titans | 49c | 36.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed 49ers | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Titans | 49c | 34.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Titans | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Titans | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Titans | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Titans | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked 49ers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…a8e6backed 49ers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Titans | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Titans | 49c | 25.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…dad2backed Titans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc232…4dddbacked 49ers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-12.5)this page
- Spread: 49ers (-13.5)Titans won
- Spread: 49ers (-14.5)Titans won
- Titans vs. 49ers49ers won
- Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5Over won
- Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.