NFL · resolved market

Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 44.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2590778210192559d2c28df2346059b27563b51e54861bbfa823c7c60d93a412

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,115 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1433…56a0backed Under	52c	5,121$2,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,663.17	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	4,988$2,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,593.73	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	50c	1,500$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over	49c	1,132$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$577.26	135	60%81 W · 54 L	+14.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	155	55.5%86 W · 69 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	50c	850$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	49c	766$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390.66	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	51c	549$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.01	314	50%157 W · 157 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	83	50.6%42 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	49c	499.99$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	116	40.5%47 W · 69 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under	51c	282$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.82	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Under	52c	220$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.4	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	242	43.4%105 W · 137 L	-7.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under	49c	163$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	205	55.6%114 W · 91 L	+15.7wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Over	52c	150$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	+3.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Under	49c	142$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.58	169	57.4%97 W · 72 L	+15.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	49c	110$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.9	140	60.7%85 W · 55 L	+14.3wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	49c	110$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.9	176	56.3%99 W · 77 L	+16.3wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Under	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	183	36.1%66 W · 117 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	96	51%49 W · 47 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Over	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Over	49c	95$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.45	117	52.1%61 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under	49c	73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.77	118	59.3%70 W · 48 L	+11.2wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Under	49c	61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	+9.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Under	49c	61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	117	58.1%68 W · 49 L	+9.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Over	42c	57.69$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.7	281	51.6%145 W · 136 L	+20.1wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ade…e692backed Over	50c	55.48$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.74	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7415…fae8backed Under	50c	49.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	101	55.4%56 W · 45 L	+5.9wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c2d…2570backed Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	103	59.2%61 W · 42 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	96	59.4%57 W · 39 L	+9.2wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	110	56.4%62 W · 48 L	+7.9wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	118	56.8%67 W · 51 L	+9.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	47c	37.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	37.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1760…c4edbacked Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed21…a2a1backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+6.8wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd6…6202backed Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e1…8dd6backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	49c	25.49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+11.0wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2643…28c2backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Titans vs. 49ers: O/U 44.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event