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College Football · resolved market

Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Tech Red Raidersof Texas Tech Red Raiders, BYU
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,283,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,721,002

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,283,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c434,786$229,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204,833.02944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed BYU49c243,139$119,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,027.3193548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked BYU47c170,978$80,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,359.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed BYU47c150,000$70,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,5006547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c117,769$58,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,884.7432745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c40,525$21,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,452.052138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c35,729$17,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,864.7312055%66 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed BYU50c35,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50011846.6%55 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c22,404$11,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,112.615451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed BYU50c22,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0009844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed BYU49c19,684$9,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,619.275851.7%30 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Texas Tech Red Raiders49c17,733$8,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,048.7226244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked BYU51c15,540$7,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,872.033151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed BYU50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00080%0 W · 8 L-4.2wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c9,402$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,594.2958850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked BYU51c9,012$4,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,596.242462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked BYU50c8,000$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,959.9838142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c6,193$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.0717946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked BYU48c6,087$2,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,895.582,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked BYU49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9408544.7%38 W · 47 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed BYU49c6,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.9738546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed BYU50c5,170$2,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5855446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed BYU49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45039954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c4,973$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.3717655.1%97 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c4,314$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.733138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed BYU48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92010047%47 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.998749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c3,333$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,633.174847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texas Tech Red Raiders44c2,793$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.4286243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed BYU49c2,314$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.272245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Texas Tech Red Raiders49c2,050$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.692365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked BYU50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9806251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed BYU50c1,750$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8754551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed BYU48c1,575$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6710848.1%52 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed BYU48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7207040%28 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed BYU50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked BYU58c1,227$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.675137.3%19 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-37.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed BYU50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6009048.9%44 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed BYU50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60012450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x063d…e00fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c1,153$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.49450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c1,100$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52815751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4805060%30 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked BYU47c994.52$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.4148546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74e1…e6a2backed Texas Tech Red Raiders54c965$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c801.03$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c784.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.313141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c754.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.724744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed BYU49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34317837.6%67 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked BYU49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5362…8334backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+63.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.241250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked BYU11c512.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.787447.3%35 W · 39 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c505.16$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.2456844.5%253 W · 315 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2507145.1%32 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked BYU48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2507254.2%39 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed BYU51c492.16$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502737%10 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c468$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.644358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c450.98$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.981566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked BYU53c450$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.442536%9 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004770.2%33 W · 14 L+8.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+35.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked BYU57c351.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c314$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.8624436.9%90 W · 154 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked BYU48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1449947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked BYU50c296$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1482339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…532bbacked BYU53c290.57$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.461225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c286.56$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7126846.3%124 W · 144 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c274.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.519050%45 W · 45 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed BYU49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.58142%34 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c234.62$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.623452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed BYU49c220$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.820950.2%105 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed BYU48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005263.5%33 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked BYU48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xade6…8083backed BYU49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked BYU48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e1…d431backed BYU50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd368…1889backed BYU50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed BYU48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f20…87c9backed BYU49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed BYU51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c195.17$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.332729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-49.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed BYU44c195$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.85238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed BYU49c193.75$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0354243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Texas Tech Red Raiders52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.314940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked BYU50c190$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9efd…30babacked Texas Tech Red Raiders53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb5f…39c7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c163.1$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.921631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed BYU50c154$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8314…1730backed BYU50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked BYU50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c122$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4611056.4%62 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608845.5%40 W · 48 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed BYU51c117.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c114$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4911849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c113.47$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.187749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Texas Tech Red Raiders56c110.7$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.716753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked BYU48c105$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.44055%22 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x990b…7b0fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c105$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.