NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f6c1764326cc7171c2982db13133bdc639fe16620f533b436e669b3b21220a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Over | 44c | 41,466$18,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,245.22 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 25,993$14,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,441.36 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Over | 43c | 15,000$6,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,450 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 57c | 13,895$7,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,974.97 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 11,310$5,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,602.35 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 48c | 8,260$3,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,969.14 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 49c | 7,399$3,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,625.33 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Under | 56c | 4,222$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.73 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 49c | 4,101$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.5 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Over | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 3,009$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.46 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 56c | 2,212$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.41 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 56c | 1,749$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.98 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 57c | 1,474$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.82 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 55c | 708.45$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.58 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Under | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 56c | 410$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Under | 56c | 354.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.57 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked Under | 54c | 278.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…2589backed Under | 56c | 226.79$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 56c | 214.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 172.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Over | 49c | 145.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 42cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 60c | 125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 56c | 110.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a37…ee28backed Under | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 46c | 96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Under | 51c | 63.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…295cbacked Over | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0b…b01abacked Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…7e3ebacked Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 46.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…7976backed Under | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…8dd6backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 44c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 51c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Under | 57c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.5this page
- Browns vs. BearsBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 38.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-18.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-7.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-8.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.