NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Bears: O/U 39.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x482d86031766461dfc70bc3f69bfed5346d34230ed29494e31eda731be56cdbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 3,264$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 1,969$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.09 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 383$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 54c | 179$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 55c | 71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…d69ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 48.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf6…0edfbacked Over | 52c | 48.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 39.5this page
- Browns vs. BearsBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 38.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-18.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-7.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-8.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.