NFL · resolved market
Browns vs. Bears: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ab927e4fe81a0ff9f7d6c00faf0f35d5d4dec76a072ed3db3df9e1cce2721d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 8,000$3,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,910 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 4,776$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.16 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 50c | 3,326$1,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 2,516$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.03 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over | 47c | 1,950$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 49c | 1,531$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 1,143$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.47 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,085$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.17 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 559$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 527$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.5 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Over | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 310.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.5 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 50c | 198.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…daabbacked Under | 50c | 67.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 38.5this page
- Browns vs. BearsBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 39.5Under won
- Browns vs. Bears: O/U 40.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-18.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-7.5)Bears won
- Spread: Bears (-8.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.