TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Western Kentuckyof Western Kentucky, Southern Miss
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,094,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,134,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,094,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5350…2fdabacked Western Kentucky43c158,555$68,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,790.83345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Western Kentucky45c105,868$47,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,750.857846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Southern Miss55c90,503$50,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,058.2721055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Southern Miss53c77,204$40,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,918.434163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Western Kentucky44c60,784$26,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,038.7732745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Western Kentucky47c52,608$24,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,640.7352449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Southern Miss57c50,000$28,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,500.063164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+22.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Western Kentucky49c50,000$24,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,349.9427246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Southern Miss55c44,653$24,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,559.1115352.3%80 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Western Kentucky46c42,740$19,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,165.2693548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Southern Miss56c40,025$22,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,413.793857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Southern Miss56c39,556$22,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,114.444738.3%18 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Southern Miss48c29,590$14,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,249.2516234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed Western Kentucky26c27,700$7,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,497.841040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Southern Miss54c26,514$14,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,449.9411849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Southern Miss50c22,725$11,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,362.5419849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Southern Miss55c20,320$11,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,132.922138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Western Kentucky50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,0002528%7 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-44.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Southern Miss56c17,939$10,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,045.6552641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Southern Miss49c15,457$7,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,549.1839954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Southern Miss65c15,109$9,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,767.8758850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Western Kentucky44c13,278$5,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,374.066838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Western Kentucky39c12,366$4,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,604.1713933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Western Kentucky51c12,338$6,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,086.7321348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Southern Miss54c9,000$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86038546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Western Kentucky43c8,422$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800.83540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Western Kentucky31c8,214$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,664.2921538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Southern Miss50c8,047$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,993.31040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Southern Miss56c8,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.9729055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Western Kentucky40c6,989$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,173.272766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Southern Miss56c6,670$3,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,735.220450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Western Kentucky44c6,015$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,367.3838450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Southern Miss54c5,990$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.312536%9 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Southern Miss58c5,837$3,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,367.3748546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8f6…15fbbacked Southern Miss56c5,332$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick46cpaid-77.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Western Kentucky59c4,866$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.5663243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Western Kentucky36c4,390$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.5262843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Southern Miss56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick61cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Southern Miss55c3,907$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1471637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Southern Miss56c3,616$2,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.972,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Western Kentucky49c3,492$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,763.777642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Western Kentucky43c3,263$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.8919842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Western Kentucky51c3,148$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.4410047%47 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Western Kentucky49c2,795$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.7817946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Southern Miss52c2,767$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.8540541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Western Kentucky41c2,579$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.362060%12 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Western Kentucky19c2,500$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0251741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Western Kentucky49c2,469$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.156753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Western Kentucky47c2,364$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.553852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Southern Miss59c2,153$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.948749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Southern Miss62c2,100$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.012751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Western Kentucky37c1,933$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.2420553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7a0…fba4backed Southern Miss69c1,869$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Western Kentucky37c1,594$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.2540244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Southern Miss61c1,520$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.5313845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Western Kentucky47c1,481$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.134643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Western Kentucky50c1,430$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.754151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b5…10b0backed Western Kentucky41c1,353$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.781020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Western Kentucky63c1,350$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.813658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Western Kentucky47c1,162$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.8665945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Western Kentucky43c1,128$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.2225629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…f34ebacked Southern Miss4c1,100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick7cpaid+341.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Western Kentucky73c1,082$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.4364841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Western Kentucky55c1,064$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.23372.7%24 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Western Kentucky40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6003265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Southern Miss53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5301947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Western Kentucky47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5303844.7%17 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Western Kentucky46c999.93$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9610242.2%43 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Western Kentucky26c999$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73911854.2%64 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Western Kentucky38c994$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.283060%18 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Western Kentucky41c983.66$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.139124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Western Kentucky51c970$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.39457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d32…3db1backed Southern Miss68c962.59$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.6140%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Southern Miss68c960.29$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6534042.5%17 W · 23 L-6.7wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Southern Miss54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009048.9%44 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Southern Miss6c863.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Western Kentucky71c837$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.362857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e03…7f54backed Western Kentucky33c829.99$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.141040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Southern Miss62c803.77$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.252263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Southern Miss54c800$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43211149.5%55 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Western Kentucky45c799.97$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.987254.2%39 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Southern Miss55c771.07$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.923748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52cc…3cdfbacked Western Kentucky46c749.99$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4052100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Southern Miss56c724$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.442653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Southern Miss62c694.52$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2926939.8%107 W · 162 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Western Kentucky46c692$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.6817361.3%106 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Western Kentucky43c664.95$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Southern Miss54c650$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3519947.5%47 W · 52 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07f…2edfbacked Southern Miss48c640$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Western Kentucky33c606.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.061752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Western Kentucky33c565.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.6357144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Southern Miss56c562.5$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…f10fbacked Southern Miss49c550$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a88…25bcbacked Western Kentucky52c540$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x462a…dd0abacked Western Kentucky52c530$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed Southern Miss51c520.28$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.851050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e3…9eafbacked Southern Miss49c520$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Western Kentucky37c513.51$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.511656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c9…cc4cbacked Western Kentucky42c500$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2891233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Western Kentucky44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2805246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.