College Football · resolved market
Spread: Southern Miss (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d4b35cd7e84ff889033808e5b38c37f74eb997d98b61b332529d429faa9bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Kentuckyof Southern Miss, Western Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Western Kentucky | 48c | 26,308$12,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,716.02 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Southern Miss | 50c | 19,557$9,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,778.5 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Western Kentucky | 50c | 18,546$9,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,273 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Southern Miss | 52c | 15,377$8,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,018.46 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Southern Miss | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Southern Miss | 52c | 2,200$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Southern Miss | 53c | 1,066$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Southern Miss | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Southern Miss | 51c | 302.55$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.3 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Southern Miss | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Southern Miss | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…0a55backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Southern Miss | 51c | 37.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Southern Miss | 51c | 36.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Southern Miss | 51c | 32.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Western Kentucky | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Southern Miss (-2.5)this page
- O/U 58.5Under won
- Spread: Southern Miss (-1.5)Western Kentucky won
- Spread: Western Kentucky (-1.5)Western Kentucky won
- Western Kentucky vs. Southern MissWestern Kentucky won
- Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.