College Football · resolved market
Spread: Western Kentucky (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db224b50f94317483e8a5ee8afc4cb4af89027091c401b4c19ccc4a1ea60688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Western Kentuckyof Western Kentucky, Southern Miss
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Western Kentucky | 47c | 13,000$6,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,890 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Southern Miss | 53c | 9,493$5,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,031.44 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3e…949bbacked Southern Miss | 53c | 2,609$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Southern Miss | 53c | 918.87$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.5 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Western Kentucky | 44c | 224.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Southern Miss | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Southern Miss | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Western Kentucky | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…789fbacked Southern Miss | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Western Kentucky | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -7.7wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Southern Miss | 56c | 99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Southern Miss | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Southern Miss | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Southern Miss | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Southern Miss | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Southern Miss | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Western Kentucky | 46c | 67.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Western Kentucky | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Western Kentucky | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Western Kentucky | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Southern Miss | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Western Kentucky | 45c | 43.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Western Kentucky | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Western Kentucky | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Western Kentucky | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Western Kentucky | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Western Kentucky | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fd…1c82backed Western Kentucky | 44c | 36.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Southern Miss | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…60b0backed Southern Miss | 60c | 34.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Western Kentucky | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Western Kentucky | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Western Kentucky | 46c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Western Kentucky | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Southern Miss | 54c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Western Kentucky (-1.5)this page
- O/U 58.5Under won
- Spread: Southern Miss (-1.5)Western Kentucky won
- Spread: Southern Miss (-2.5)Western Kentucky won
- Western Kentucky vs. Southern MissWestern Kentucky won
- Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss: O/U 59.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.