College Football · resolved market
Spread: BYU (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ad7048dd482881b6648b8a21907ccc797032e8895402d84efbeac14d4e7fd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof BYU, Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $230,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Cincinnati | 49c | 85,952$42,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,044.72 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed BYU | 52c | 78,056$40,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,738.12 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cincinnati | 49c | 68,439$33,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,340.07 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed BYU | 51c | 32,000$16,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,680 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed BYU | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,700 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cincinnati | 48c | 25,660$12,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,311.2 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed BYU | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed BYU | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Cincinnati | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cincinnati | 48c | 7,290$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.22 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked BYU | 51c | 6,613$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.06 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Cincinnati | 48c | 6,045$2,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,901.6 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed BYU | 52c | 4,523$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.13 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed BYU | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cincinnati | 49c | 3,878$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.22 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed BYU | 52c | 3,500$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed BYU | 56c | 3,400$1,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.46 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cincinnati | 43c | 3,243$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.55 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked BYU | 51c | 2,660$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed BYU | 51c | 2,250$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Cincinnati | 48c | 1,988$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.24 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed BYU | 52c | 1,550$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked BYU | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.31 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed BYU | 52c | 1,280$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.4 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked BYU | 52c | 1,110$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.35 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed BYU | 51c | 1,083$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.67 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked BYU | 51c | 1,042$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.78 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed BYU | 52c | 961.04$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.3 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cincinnati | 49c | 666.6$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.63 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Cincinnati | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked BYU | 50c | 593.12$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.56 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed BYU | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed BYU | 51c | 486.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.04 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed BYU | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cincinnati | 49c | 400$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed BYU | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked BYU | 51c | 375$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.75 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cincinnati | 47c | 315$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.53 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked BYU | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed BYU | 52c | 230.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…f4c7backed BYU | 53c | 222.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked BYU | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked BYU | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Cincinnati | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked BYU | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked BYU | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cincinnati | 49c | 185.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…158dbacked BYU | 52c | 156.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cincinnati | 48c | 133$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked Cincinnati | 48c | 121$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed BYU | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed BYU | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4e…05e0backed BYU | 52c | 94.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked BYU | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed BYU | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf909…2b17backed Cincinnati | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked BYU | 52c | 47.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cincinnati | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed BYU | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a68…af3bbacked BYU | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed BYU | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cincinnati | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cincinnati | 48c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cincinnati | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed BYU | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BYU (-2.5)this page
- BYU vs. CincinnatiBYU won
- BYU vs. Cincinnati: O/U 56.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: BYU (-3.5)BYU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.