UFC · resolved market
Schnell vs. Morales
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x864768acd791ada559a5bdf57b941f260dfc629a37fc31d847bce50769d59955
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moralesof Schnell, Morales
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfb…a073backed Schnell | 25c | 19,490$4,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,872.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Schnell | 21c | 14,537$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Morales | 79c | 13,211$10,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,774.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Schnell | 21c | 11,004$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.83 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Morales | 79c | 9,582$7,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.24 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c57…5155backed Schnell | 49c | 9,500$4,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…b00abacked Morales | 51c | 9,265$4,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,539.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702b…a724backed Morales | 75c | 6,887$5,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,721.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…4f7fbacked Morales | 51c | 6,580$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,224.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8886…28b3backed Schnell | 49c | 6,350$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,111.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Morales | 78c | 6,123$4,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.04 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…8152backed Morales | 75c | 5,253$3,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Schnell | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…1badbacked Schnell | 21c | 4,762$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…533ebacked Morales | 75c | 4,515$3,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Schnell | 19c | 3,700$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1b…724fbacked Morales | 80c | 3,150$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Schnell | 19c | 2,979$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.99 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9c…8f51backed Morales | 75c | 2,835$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Morales | 79c | 2,681$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.96 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Schnell | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Schnell | 22c | 2,100$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Schnell | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Schnell | 22c | 2,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Schnell | 20c | 1,993$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.63 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Schnell | 20c | 1,400$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.07 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Morales | 75c | 1,014$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.38 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Schnell | 19c | 888$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Morales | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Schnell | 19c | 791.36$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.36 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Schnell | 21c | 700$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Schnell | 22c | 692.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Schnell | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Schnell | 21c | 543.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Schnell | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Schnell | 20c | 482.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Schnell | 21c | 480.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Morales | 80c | 409$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Morales | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Schnell | 6c | 326.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Schnell | 19c | 296.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Schnell | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Schnell | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…cd1abacked Schnell | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…377ebacked Schnell | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Schnell | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Schnell | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Morales | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…95f6backed Schnell | 21c | 191$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Schnell | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Schnell | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Schnell | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Schnell | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Schnell | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…e1b9backed Schnell | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed Schnell | 28c | 88.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Morales | 78c | 83.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Schnell | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…c0b9backed Schnell | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…13b9backed Morales | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Schnell | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…af65backed Schnell | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Morales | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Schnell | 29c | 38.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Morales | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…0410backed Morales | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…7070backed Morales | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…00b4backed Morales | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Morales | 80c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Schnell vs. Moralesthis page
- Barcelos vs. SimonBarcelos won
- Bonfim vs. PadillaPadilla won
- Brown vs. BonfimBonfim won
- Bueno Silva vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Duncan vs. TulioDuncan won
- Emmers vs. AmilEmmers won
- Hokit vs. GimenisHokit won
- Pennington vs. GomesGomes won
- Salikhov vs. MedicMedic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.