UFC · resolved market

Bonfim vs. Padilla

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb22c0fc9fcbe6268c15ef4a1b09cb4cc8e46122d1151afd0f3077b690cabc046

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Padillaof Bonfim, Padilla
Resolved: Nov 8, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $127,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $145,006

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,560 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Padilla	53c	34,458$18,195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,263.04	291	51.9%151 W · 140 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Bonfim	49c	10,186$4,963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,963.36	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Bonfim	47c	5,968$2,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,795.15	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Bonfim	56c	5,105$2,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,841.64	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	+6.3wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Bonfim	53c	4,141$2,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,211.04	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Bonfim	51c	3,930$2,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,004.3	169	51.5%87 W · 82 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bonfim	51c	3,500$1,785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,785	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bonfim	50c	3,053$1,527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,526.5	202	33.7%68 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed Padilla	50c	3,039$1,519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,519.36	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Bonfim	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,530	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-4.5wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bonfim	29c	2,762$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.94	201	39.8%80 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Bonfim	56c	2,570$1,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,435.9	181	45.3%82 W · 99 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Padilla	41c	2,490$1,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,464.33	212	47.2%100 W · 112 L	+10.1wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed Padilla	50c	2,356$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,178	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bonfim	50c	2,321$1,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.38	195	44.6%87 W · 108 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Bonfim	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Bonfim	53c	2,000$1,060 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,060	209	54.1%113 W · 96 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Padilla	47c	1,744$821 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.71	264	51.9%137 W · 127 L	+23.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Padilla	39c	1,593$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$976.83	88	35.2%31 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Bonfim	53c	1,410$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.8	280	43.2%121 W · 159 L	+10.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Bonfim	51c	1,400$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717.16	109	28.4%31 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Padilla	48c	1,384$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$713.93	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-10.5wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Bonfim	50c	1,343$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671.7	267	43.8%117 W · 150 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Bonfim	62c	1,334$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.27	122	62.3%76 W · 46 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Bonfim	60c	1,323$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.76	318	55%175 W · 143 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Bonfim	51c	1,217$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.47	367	45.8%168 W · 199 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Padilla	40c	1,172$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$703.3	68	50%34 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Padilla	57c	1,165$659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$505.87	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Bonfim	51c	1,103$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.57	62	48.4%30 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Padilla	50c	1,041$522 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.9	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Padilla	37c	1,022$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$641.96	180	38.9%70 W · 110 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Padilla	49c	1,008$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514	162	47.5%77 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bonfim	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	171	58.5%100 W · 71 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Bonfim	51c	980.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Padilla	50c	930$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Padilla	36c	802.25$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.44	288	49.7%143 W · 145 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Padilla	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	399	59.6%238 W · 161 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Bonfim	50c	800$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	111	40.5%45 W · 66 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Padilla	49c	786.69$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.03	377	54.6%206 W · 171 L	+19.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Bonfim	53c	727$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.31	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Bonfim	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	63	34.9%22 W · 41 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Padilla	50c	595.46$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.73	92	28.3%26 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	36cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Bonfim	50c	568.21$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.11	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Padilla	46c	565.92$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.87	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Padilla	49c	516.13$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$263.32	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Bonfim	54c	513.2$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	46	65.2%30 W · 16 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Padilla	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	136	36%49 W · 87 L	-13.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Padilla	47c	482.46$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.46	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…1778backed Bonfim	52c	480$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.35	72	33.3%24 W · 48 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Bonfim	49c	417.08$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.37	44	25%11 W · 33 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Bonfim	66c	409.09$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	356	64.6%230 W · 126 L	+9.3wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Bonfim	54c	405$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.7	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Bonfim	66c	400$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	63cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Bonfim	51c	394$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.94	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.32per pick	52cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Padilla	49c	380.74$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.18	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Bonfim	63c	377.78$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	134	50%67 W · 67 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Padilla	49c	306.38$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.38	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…0077backed Padilla	49c	306.12$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Bonfim	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Padilla	35c	299.99$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Bonfim	51c	294.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Bonfim	65c	293.84$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2467…c702backed Padilla	50c	279.5$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.75	100	45%45 W · 55 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e5…1d48backed Padilla	38c	263$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.06	110	57.3%63 W · 47 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Bonfim	63c	260$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.8	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Padilla	51c	254.9$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.9	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Padilla	39c	219.81$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.04	192	30.7%59 W · 133 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Padilla	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bonfim	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Padilla	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	215	54.4%117 W · 98 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Bonfim	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	78	30.8%24 W · 54 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Padilla	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	105	22.9%24 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Bonfim	52c	199.98$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.99	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Padilla	44c	192.22$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.15	124	46.8%58 W · 66 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x041f…fce8backed Padilla	51c	170.59$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.59	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Padilla	50c	165.66$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.83	355	39.4%140 W · 215 L	-19.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Padilla	44c	165$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.4	145	30.3%44 W · 101 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae25…94bbbacked Padilla	49c	152.91$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.91	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Bonfim	53c	152.17$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.65	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Padilla	38c	150$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93	366	55.2%202 W · 164 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Bonfim	51c	150$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b9…d928backed Bonfim	63c	137.7$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Padilla	36c	133.31$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.85	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…3c98backed Padilla	50c	121.88$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.94	130	59.2%77 W · 53 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Bonfim	54c	120.2$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.91	168	51.8%87 W · 81 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe016…424bbacked Padilla	44c	102.27$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.27	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…e194backed Padilla	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Padilla	51c	101.96$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.96	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Bonfim	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Padilla	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.2	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Bonfim	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e1…3b95backed Bonfim	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	64	62.5%40 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Bonfim	55c	96.36$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	94	50%47 W · 47 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Bonfim	51c	95.45$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Bonfim	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eec…6d82backed Padilla	50c	90.16$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.16	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7a8…0cecbacked Bonfim	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	57cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bonfim	50c	80.12$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.06	332	53.3%177 W · 155 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…1f39backed Padilla	50c	80.12$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.06	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.26per pick	58cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb740…2422backed Bonfim	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Bonfim vs. Padillathis page
Barcelos vs. SimonBarcelos won
Brown vs. BonfimBonfim won
Bueno Silva vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
Duncan vs. TulioDuncan won
Emmers vs. AmilEmmers won
Hokit vs. GimenisHokit won
Pennington vs. GomesGomes won
Salikhov vs. MedicMedic won
Schnell vs. MoralesMorales won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Bonfim vs. Padilla

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event