TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Emmers vs. Amil

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Emmersof Emmers, Amil
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,296 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x857c…cb02backed Emmers45c22,843$10,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,665.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Emmers45c12,302$5,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,748.296346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Amil57c10,837$6,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,177.2935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Amil56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6005440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Emmers44c9,958$4,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,566.7730039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Amil55c8,646$4,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,793.296850%34 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Amil36c7,812$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,822.7610522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Amil55c6,990$3,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,844.385955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…91e4backed Emmers44c5,546$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.17728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Amil55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Amil56c3,839$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.9426743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Emmers63c3,710$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.9629151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Amil57c3,524$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Amil56c3,344$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,872.6428849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7b…d405backed Emmers43c3,123$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.092630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ae1…fed4backed Amil58c3,017$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Emmers65c2,625$1,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.513650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Emmers42c2,574$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.3521044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Emmers42c2,516$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.1216247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Emmers44c2,050$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.388940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcac4…bf62backed Amil57c2,040$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.541566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Emmers43c2,024$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.663943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Amil54c2,000$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.218145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Emmers72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5609148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Emmers38c1,589$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.7420954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Emmers37c1,555$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.853327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Emmers39c1,441$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.7421247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1b3backed Amil58c1,340$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Emmers62c1,325$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.4653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Amil28c1,300$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.968248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Emmers42c1,104$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.5717850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Emmers44c1,050$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58816951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Amil58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Amil61c1,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61037754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Emmers43c870$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.99228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Emmers43c773.65$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.8818038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Amil57c732.9$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.2451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Amil50c720$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9339959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Amil58c698.28$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40513450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Amil57c656.14$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37413437.3%50 W · 84 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Amil58c637.93$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3706937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Emmers40c579.32$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.7933253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Amil61c532$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.227743%119 W · 158 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Amil58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Amil58c516.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005954.2%32 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Emmers43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28512262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a50ebacked Amil61c491.95$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005232.7%17 W · 35 L-10.5wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-48.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5f27…8ec7backed Emmers40c473.81$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Amil57c434.23$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.513234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Amil55c414$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.718560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Amil55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202540%10 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Emmers43c353.49$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.494425%11 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-36.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Emmers33c328.24$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7936745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Amil56c325.67$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.45955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Amil5c307.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8919418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Amil58c268.02$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.452642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…e7b3backed Amil56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Amil58c253.77$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1948749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Emmers45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Emmers45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.222343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Amil55c213.63$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3311140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fab…3c98backed Amil26c205$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5313059.2%77 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Emmers43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11413636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Emmers58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847830.8%24 W · 54 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Emmers44c200$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.514827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Emmers42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1163145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7da…7f7bbacked Emmers42c190.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Amil61c171.37$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1261…4e88backed Amil58c159.07$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e7…77b1backed Amil68c150.77$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023060%18 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Amil57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.54746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x18ea…ae46backed Amil58c149.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.833976.9%30 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Amil67c147.7$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9631855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eec…6d82backed Emmers51c138.71$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.723756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Amil58c135.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.73148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10cf…010dbacked Emmers44c120$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.24344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Amil54c118.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.666741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Emmers32c114.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2822342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef13…53d2backed Emmers55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Amil57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5716736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e5…1d48backed Emmers43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5711057.3%63 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Emmers46c97.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+70.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3248…aad4backed Emmers67c88.35$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Amil57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Emmers40c80$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea0…1c35backed Emmers43c78.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1b…3e08backed Emmers43c74.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Amil57c70.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.97448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Emmers43c69.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.779547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Amil54c62.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Emmers39c62.53$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0910928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Emmers35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1428333.2%94 W · 189 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc2…00b1backed Amil58c56.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f6…8160backed Emmers45c55.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.564847.9%23 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Amil58c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.122653.1%120 W · 106 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Amil56c53.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9912147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e6…e1b9backed Emmers38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.631233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Amil57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307737.7%29 W · 48 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Amil58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce49…c3b9backed Amil56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810650.9%54 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.