TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Bueno Silva vs. Cavalcanti

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cavalcantiof Bueno Silva, Cavalcanti
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,611

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,637 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bueno Silva33c10,082$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,345.88940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Cavalcanti67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.985440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bueno Silva33c8,175$2,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,697.8435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Cavalcanti66c7,662$5,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,575.936346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Cavalcanti67c7,500$5,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,476.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bueno Silva34c7,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,379.9830039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d1…9d8fbacked Bueno Silva32c6,361$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Bueno Silva30c3,469$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.6511140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Cavalcanti72c3,427$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.8329151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d2…45eebacked Cavalcanti68c3,390$2,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.922360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cavalcanti70c3,322$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Cavalcanti68c2,990$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.816951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bueno Silva34c2,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68020233.7%68 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Cavalcanti67c1,967$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.047736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Bueno Silva33c1,858$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.1421044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Cavalcanti66c1,647$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.0626743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Bueno Silva32c1,525$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.9912235.2%43 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Cavalcanti66c1,516$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.285356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Cavalcanti66c1,367$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.7210522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd33e…4d22backed Cavalcanti71c1,092$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b6…d93bbacked Bueno Silva34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce5…4958backed Cavalcanti71c943.07$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Bueno Silva33c937.97$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.533327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Bueno Silva33c930$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.93234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Bueno Silva31c801.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Bueno Silva33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2649148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3484…0e64backed Bueno Silva33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Cavalcanti68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22417850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Cavalcanti76c680.29$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.3554056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Bueno Silva33c606.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Bueno Silva35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cavalcanti65c499.73$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.919544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcac4…bf62backed Cavalcanti67c461.28$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.221566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Bueno Silva35c460$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16013636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Bueno Silva33c454.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505954.2%32 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Bueno Silva34c433.64$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.449228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Cavalcanti71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Cavalcanti66c378.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.7917158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Cavalcanti73c375.19$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7637854.8%207 W · 171 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Cavalcanti67c372.98$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.986937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Cavalcanti66c337.88$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.886756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x624d…d225backed Cavalcanti68c334.15$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Cavalcanti66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10239959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Cavalcanti66c299.25$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.25955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Bueno Silva33c268.19$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.528143.1%121 W · 160 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Cavalcanti66c257.5$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.556060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Bueno Silva29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5814827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Cavalcanti68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6436755.3%203 W · 164 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Bueno Silva29c194.1$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2912262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Bueno Silva30c180.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0416851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Bueno Silva7c155$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4719418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Cavalcanti66c154.12$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.46155.7%34 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Bueno Silva33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Bueno Silva33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015848.1%76 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Cavalcanti66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5213450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Bueno Silva34c149.59$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8651533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe318…3506backed Cavalcanti68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed Cavalcanti68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick60cpaid+29.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Cavalcanti68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bueno Silva33c125$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2519230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Cavalcanti67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3313453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Bueno Silva34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Bueno Silva30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Bueno Silva33c98.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.494344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33cf…568cbacked Bueno Silva34c94.79$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab38…8fb9backed Bueno Silva33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Bueno Silva33c84.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816655.4%92 W · 74 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Bueno Silva33c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.46741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f22…aaecbacked Cavalcanti66c75.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.191275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Cavalcanti66c74.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.433145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1261…4e88backed Cavalcanti67c72.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Cavalcanti66c72.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.635539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Bueno Silva32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Bueno Silva34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Bueno Silva30c58.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6412446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c45…47f1backed Cavalcanti68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4719065.3%124 W · 66 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…b4e6backed Cavalcanti70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+32.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34dc…3367backed Bueno Silva30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7256…2c0bbacked Bueno Silva30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155667.9%38 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Bueno Silva34c44.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Cavalcanti67c38.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.814450%22 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x65c1…8d38backed Cavalcanti68c36.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b0…fd60backed Cavalcanti66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82f…a08bbacked Cavalcanti69c23.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.332871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe615…6819backed Cavalcanti68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0615062.7%94 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…7b5ebacked Cavalcanti67c21.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.151747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa05…fed7backed Cavalcanti69c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.293857.9%22 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25f8…0410backed Cavalcanti66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.89100%9 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Cavalcanti68c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85867.2%39 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.