TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Duncan vs. Tulio

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Duncanof Duncan, Tulio
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83b9…6124backed Duncan40c14,247$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,487.123525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Tulio60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0005440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Duncan38c9,645$3,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,952.728940.4%36 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Tulio23c7,878$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83210522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Tulio62c7,500$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6501338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Tulio59c6,833$4,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,031.495244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Duncan40c4,717$1,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,830.0935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20a8…f004backed Tulio59c4,040$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40020954.1%113 W · 96 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Duncan40c3,927$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,340.513327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Tulio60c3,334$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.416951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Tulio62c3,333$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.4628849.7%143 W · 145 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…b29dbacked Tulio1c3,306$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Tulio60c2,779$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.726743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Tulio15c2,460$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2914530.3%44 W · 101 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Tulio28c2,262$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.5321247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Tulio28c1,855$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.2820139.8%80 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Duncan77c1,845$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.6913650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Tulio62c1,607$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Tulio59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8855435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Tulio35c1,400$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.895356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Duncan40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75030964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Duncan40c1,227$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.3612134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c5…90dfbacked Duncan42c1,049$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.31163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Tulio58c1,046$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.76346%29 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Tulio23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2308248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Duncan64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3609148.4%44 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Tulio63c999.98$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9917850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Duncan37c943.22$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.238835.2%31 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Duncan42c929.99$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.393234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-25.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeab2…2b11backed Duncan41c913.18$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.181442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Duncan56c900$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.2153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Tulio58c829.31$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4813943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Duncan38c789.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.4718644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Duncan37c784.12$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.418038.9%70 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Tulio60c776.07$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.6427743%119 W · 158 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Duncan37c750.35$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.7233253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c81…e258backed Duncan38c660$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Duncan38c641.31$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Duncan40c629.01$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.0110043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…2a93backed Tulio64c610.61$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Tulio58c600$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34936745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b8…f41fbacked Tulio59c556.76$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.497736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Tulio64c547.5$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35035564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Tulio60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…6f5ebacked Tulio60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006334.9%22 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Duncan41c490$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.16756.7%38 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Duncan38c473.68$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Duncan42c452.64$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.629228.3%26 W · 66 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Duncan60c434.73$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5737754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Duncan39c408$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8818560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Duncan38c407$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.343053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Tulio60c373$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.85451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f27…8ec7backed Tulio60c355$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Tulio60c347.31$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3916851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…0077backed Tulio63c318.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10cf…010dbacked Duncan38c310$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.34344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3289…4538backed Duncan40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Tulio61c250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.216058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Tulio60c238.78$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.8635539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Duncan42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.113450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb46f…c0b9backed Duncan42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.12642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a85fbacked Tulio63c234.7$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.86875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Duncan39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.514827%40 W · 108 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Duncan38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12416736.5%61 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…e7b3backed Duncan40c192.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.53855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Duncan36c188.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1510928.4%31 W · 78 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Tulio61c179.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7956450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Duncan38c176.61$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.512446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fab…3c98backed Tulio58c173$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3413059.2%77 W · 53 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Tulio55c152.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Tulio60c152.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.512262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Duncan43c151.16$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.169547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Tulio58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874746.8%22 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Duncan42c147.72$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9451533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf826…cd1abacked Duncan42c142.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.867737.7%29 W · 48 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Duncan65c142$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.718145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Tulio61c127.39$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.713145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f21…fa6dbacked Duncan40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Tulio59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Duncan42c106.38$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0113636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ffc…ef35backed Duncan39c104.82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.94875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+39.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Duncan39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5632431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Tulio60c100.82$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.815152.9%27 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…aa71backed Duncan40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606741.8%28 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Tulio23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3e5…1d48backed Duncan37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6311057.3%63 W · 47 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85da…13b9backed Tulio59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Duncan39c97.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6512147.1%57 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Duncan38c92.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.112147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Tulio55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010148.5%49 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Duncan41c79.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.96580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+70.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Tulio64c78.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022334.1%76 W · 147 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab38…8fb9backed Duncan40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Duncan41c75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.257448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7256…2c0bbacked Tulio40c74.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305667.9%38 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked Tulio39c63.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Tulio55c58.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.23735.1%13 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x17e7…77b1backed Duncan72c55.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63060%18 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2430…5b48backed Tulio62c53.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334560%27 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eec…6d82backed Duncan57c52.93$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.933756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.