UFC · resolved market
Hokit vs. Gimenis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc607f098b11b79340fe6ac64cde303de1b4970e2bd1e944813cf1f0b5942a4ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hokitof Hokit, Gimenis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Hokit | 80c | 88,739$70,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,850.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Gimenis | 20c | 26,118$5,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,276.24 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Gimenis | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Gimenis | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Gimenis | 19c | 8,593$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.96 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Gimenis | 20c | 7,563$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.5 | 210 | 44.8%94 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…3aa5backed Gimenis | 20c | 5,536$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Gimenis | 21c | 5,068$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.35 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Gimenis | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…380dbacked Gimenis | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Gimenis | 19c | 4,562$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.73 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Gimenis | 20c | 3,130$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Hokit | 80c | 3,002$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.31 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Gimenis | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Gimenis | 21c | 2,800$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Gimenis | 21c | 2,587$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.53 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Gimenis | 23c | 2,569$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.28 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Gimenis | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Gimenis | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…45eebacked Hokit | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Gimenis | 25c | 1,200$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Gimenis | 20c | 1,163$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Gimenis | 20c | 930$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Gimenis | 20c | 785$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Hokit | 80c | 626.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hokit | 75c | 626.65$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Gimenis | 19c | 593$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Gimenis | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -13.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Hokit | 78c | 382.44$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Hokit | 79c | 377.49$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…77b1backed Hokit | 78c | 333.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Gimenis | 22c | 280.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed Hokit | 79c | 275.02$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Gimenis | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Gimenis | 21c | 237.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Gimenis | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Hokit | 76c | 196.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Hokit | 76c | 159.79$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Gimenis | 20c | 154.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Gimenis | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Hokit | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf826…cd1abacked Gimenis | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Gimenis | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Hokit | 80c | 75.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Hokit | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Gimenis | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46f…c0b9backed Gimenis | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Hokit | 80c | 17.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Hokit | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…8244backed Hokit | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hokit vs. Gimenisthis page
- Barcelos vs. SimonBarcelos won
- Bonfim vs. PadillaPadilla won
- Brown vs. BonfimBonfim won
- Bueno Silva vs. CavalcantiCavalcanti won
- Duncan vs. TulioDuncan won
- Emmers vs. AmilEmmers won
- Pennington vs. GomesGomes won
- Salikhov vs. MedicMedic won
- Schnell vs. MoralesMorales won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.