College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85d83b25ce13c359e08abd046ae819be43c33371ba427e61f69ba5825c3352d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Washington
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Oregon | 45c | 55,653$25,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,609.35 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Washington | 55c | 40,000$22,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,000 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Washington | 54c | 30,000$16,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,200 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Oregon | 46c | 24,997$11,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,498.44 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon | 46c | 19,207$8,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,404.79 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon | 44c | 11,115$4,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,176.31 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Washington | 57c | 10,002$5,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,701.08 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed Washington | 55c | 9,711$5,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,341.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Washington | 54c | 9,000$4,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,859.99 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Oregon | 43c | 8,122$3,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,629.54 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Washington | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Washington | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Washington | 56c | 3,523$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Washington | 56c | 3,272$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.6 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Oregon | 46c | 2,780$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Washington | 54c | 1,750$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Washington | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.6 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Washington | 55c | 1,660$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Washington | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Washington | 55c | 1,213$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.08 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Washington | 56c | 1,110$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Oregon | 43c | 1,026$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.82 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Washington | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Oregon | 42c | 946.5$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.97 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Washington | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oregon | 46c | 826$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.82 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oregon | 43c | 791$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.87 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…8503backed Washington | 55c | 727$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Oregon | 46c | 634.78$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Oregon | 46c | 536.96$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Washington | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Washington | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Washington | 58c | 479.5$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.11 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…9b51backed Washington | 55c | 381.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Washington | 55c | 324.51$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.35 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Washington | 55c | 300$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Washington | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Oregon | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.87 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Washington | 49c | 231.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2f38backed Washington | 55c | 219.23$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Oregon | 46c | 215.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Oregon | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Washington | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Washington | 55c | 175$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Washington | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon | 46c | 163$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.02 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Washington | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Washington | 56c | 150$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Washington | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Washington | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Oregon | 45c | 140.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Washington | 55c | 125.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…1dc4backed Washington | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Washington | 51c | 105.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Washington | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Oregon | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Washington | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Oregon | 43c | 66.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Washington | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Oregon | 47c | 62.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Washington | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Oregon | 47c | 54.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Oregon | 47c | 42.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed Washington | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Oregon | 45c | 35.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Oregon | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Oregon | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Oregon | 45c | 22.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Washington | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-7.5)this page
- Oregon vs. WashingtonOregon won
- Oregon vs. Washington: 1H MoneylineOregon won
- Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 51.5Under won
- Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-6.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.