College Football · resolved market
Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099223de764352dee0b36a0c673ec3ef63f8773afe5f8ced84fc85a9c65c2d8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 1,410$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 1,148$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,129$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.68 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 371.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.08 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 50c | 262$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 49c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 51.5this page
- Oregon vs. WashingtonOregon won
- Oregon vs. Washington: 1H MoneylineOregon won
- Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-6.5)Oregon won
- Spread: Oregon (-7.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.