College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecefd70df40ade17b6b9e0b9f02886b4465a9117de58679b19ff18fa029c6942
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Washington
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Washington | 44c | 10,139$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,462.39 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Washington | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Oregon | 54c | 6,525$3,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,031.58 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oregon | 56c | 6,032$3,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.15 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Oregon | 56c | 4,476$2,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.17 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Washington | 47c | 4,141$1,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.92 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Washington | 46c | 3,525$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.58 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Washington | 46c | 3,128$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.26 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon | 53c | 3,124$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.1 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Oregon | 51c | 2,165$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.04 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon | 53c | 2,082$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.15 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Oregon | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.85 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Oregon | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Oregon | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Washington | 46c | 212.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Oregon | 55c | 199.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Washington | 48c | 170$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon | 59c | 167$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Oregon | 53c | 148.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Washington | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Oregon | 54c | 137.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Oregon | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Washington | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Oregon | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Oregon | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Washington | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde99…416cbacked Oregon | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…b05bbacked Washington | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Oregon | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Washington | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Oregon | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Oregon | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-6.5)this page
- Oregon vs. WashingtonOregon won
- Oregon vs. Washington: 1H MoneylineOregon won
- Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 51.5Under won
- Oregon vs. Washington: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-7.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.