NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3415c0708e11d19d903a1a34bb49759ee46dea7571f73c60b56cc538a68a2e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Nuggets, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Nuggets | 48c | 125,419$59,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,773.32 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a7…6fcfbacked Spurs | 52c | 105,832$55,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,799.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 54c | 25,236$13,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,678.52 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 48c | 6,167$2,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.15 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Spurs | 53c | 5,029$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,363.63 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 47c | 4,947$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.95 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 53c | 4,921$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Spurs | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.98 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets | 47c | 3,780$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.6 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Nuggets | 47c | 1,624$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.03 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Nuggets | 49c | 1,474$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.45 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 47c | 596.15$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.72 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 48c | 542.52$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Nuggets | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Nuggets | 52c | 456.06$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.15 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked Spurs | 60c | 334.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 40c | 334.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Nuggets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Spurs | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs | 51c | 176.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Nuggets | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Nuggets | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Nuggets | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Spurs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 55c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nuggets | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…c02cbacked Nuggets | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Nuggets | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Nuggets | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Nuggets | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137b…2fd5backed Nuggets | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Spurs | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ba…12d4backed Nuggets | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Spurs | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Nuggets | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Nuggets | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 146 | 50.7%74 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Spurs | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed Spurs | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. NuggetsSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.