TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Spursof Nuggets, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,728 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets45c2,006$903 inLost-$902.651,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets16c1,755$283 inLost-$283.48,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs54c550.24$297 inWon+$253.083,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Spurs55c550$303 inWon+$247.516547.3%78 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs53c500$265 inWon+$23573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Spurs47c500$235 inWon+$26515461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets53c482$255 inLost-$255.465,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nuggets50c288$144 inLost-$143.762,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7543…1852backed Nuggets43c203$87 inLost-$87.291450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets43c178$76 inLost-$76.332,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01db…16e3backed Spurs60c167.5$100 inWon+$67.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs49c120$59 inWon+$61.24,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35db…d658backed Spurs65c113.53$74 inWon+$39.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nuggets45c110.91$50 inLost-$49.9180744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Spurs55c90.91$50 inWon+$40.9110253.9%55 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Spurs60c83.88$50 inWon+$33.8811251.8%58 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets39c81.53$32 inLost-$32.069,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33da…f818backed Spurs65c76.92$50 inWon+$26.926358.7%37 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Nuggets43c74.93$32 inLost-$32.262,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Spurs68c73.53$50 inWon+$23.536150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets42c60$25 inLost-$25.23,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4458…aebabacked Spurs55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.55785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Nuggets56c53.36$30 inLost-$3012550.4%63 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Nuggets74c50$37 inLost-$3761253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Spurs50c50$25 inWon+$2532041.9%134 W · 186 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Nuggets44c45.45$20 inLost-$201,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets36c44.05$16 inLost-$15.862,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets44c36$16 inLost-$15.822,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Spurs62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.261,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Spurs62c27.42$17 inWon+$10.4216253.1%86 W · 76 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x075a…8d34backed Spurs59c25.42$15 inWon+$10.4212858.6%75 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Nuggets46c22$10 inLost-$10.1252240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Spurs58c19.95$12 inWon+$8.4260834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.